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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">HGSSD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>History of Geo- and Space Sciences Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">HGSSD</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Hist. Geo Space. Sci. Discuss.</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/hgss-2026-15</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>The Maturation of Scientific Evidence of Anthropogenic Climate Change</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kaurov</surname>
<given-names>Alexander A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0255-1204</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Oreskes</surname>
<given-names>Naomi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, Wellington, New Zealand</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Blue Marble Space Institute of Science, Seattle, WA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of the History of Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>02</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2026</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2026</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>62</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2026 Alexander A. Kaurov</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hgss.copernicus.org/preprints/hgss-2026-15/">This article is available from https://hgss.copernicus.org/preprints/hgss-2026-15/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://hgss.copernicus.org/preprints/hgss-2026-15/hgss-2026-15.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hgss.copernicus.org/preprints/hgss-2026-15/hgss-2026-15.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>With respect to anthropogenic climate change, the question of who knew what when is of growing legal significance, as jurisdictions take up questions of climate legal liability. Yet despite an enormous volume of scientific literature and recurring expert assessments, no concise account traces what we know about anthropogenic climate change, how we know it, and when the evidence of it became mature. By &quot;mature&quot; we mean an evidence base that is methodologically standardised, institutionally sustained, and independently cross-validated across multiple instruments and groups. Existing syntheses, whether multi-volume assessment reports, detailed monographs, or consensus analyses, do not provide this information in a form accessible to non-specialist professional audiences. This review assembles such a maturation timeline. For each of the four major indicators of climate change &amp;ndash; temperature, sea level, greenhouse gases, and cryosphere (ice sheets, glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost) &amp;ndash; we trace the progression of expert knowledge. Typically, it starts with isolated, sometimes idiosyncratic observations, and then goes through methodological standardisation and national institutionalisation, eventually turning into coordinated international observing systems. By presenting these developments side by side, we show that the principal observational pillars of climate science developed into internationally standardised, independently cross-validated evidence bases between the mid-twentieth and the early twenty-first centuries. These observations, combined with climate model simulations of what the world would have been like without human intervention, constitute the empirical foundation of the modern scientific case for anthropogenic climate change, as well as the potential ethical and legal case for climate liability. This latter consideration has gained relevance since the International Court of Justice &amp;ndash; in its 2025 advisory on the obligations of states in respect of climate change &amp;ndash; affirmed the scientific record as central to establishing breach of international environmental law.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="62"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Rockefeller Family Fund</funding-source>
<award-id>-</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
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</front>
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