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  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">HGSS</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>History of Geo- and Space Sciences</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">HGSS</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Hist. Geo Space. Sci.</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2190-5029</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/hgss-10-235-2019</article-id><title-group><article-title>The curious case of the Milankovitch calendar</article-title><alt-title>The curious case of the Milankovitch calendar</alt-title>
      </title-group><?xmltex \runningtitle{The curious case of the Milankovitch calendar}?><?xmltex \runningauthor{N. Gajic}?>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
          <name><surname>Gajic</surname><given-names>Nenad</given-names></name>
          <email>nenad.gajicc@gmail.com</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3555-0091</ext-link></contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><institution>Faculty of Technical Sciences, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 6, 21000
Novi Sad, Serbia</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Nenad Gajic (nenad.gajicc@gmail.com)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>26</day><month>September</month><year>2019</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>10</volume>
      <issue>2</issue>
      <fpage>235</fpage><lpage>243</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>20</day><month>May</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>11</day><month>August</month><year>2019</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>23</day><month>August</month><year>2019</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2019 Nenad Gajic</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2019</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://hgss.copernicus.org/articles/10/235/2019/hgss-10-235-2019.html">This article is available from https://hgss.copernicus.org/articles/10/235/2019/hgss-10-235-2019.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://hgss.copernicus.org/articles/10/235/2019/hgss-10-235-2019.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hgss.copernicus.org/articles/10/235/2019/hgss-10-235-2019.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>
    <p id="d1e74">The Gregorian calendar, despite being more precise than
the Julian (which now lags 13 d behind Earth), will also lag a day behind
nature in this millennium. In 1923, Milutin Milankovitch presented a
calendar of outstanding scientific importance and unprecedented astronomical
accuracy, which was accepted at the Ecumenical Congress of Eastern Orthodox
churches. However, its adoption is still partial in churches and nonexistent
in civil states, despite nearly a century without a better proposition of
calendar reform in terms of both precision and ease of transition, which are
important for acceptance. This article reviews the development of calendars
throughout history and presents the case of Milankovitch's, explaining its
aims and methodology and why it is sometimes mistakenly identified with the
Gregorian because of their long consonance. Religious aspects are briefly
covered, explaining the potential of this calendar to unite secular and
religious purposes through improving accuracy in both contexts.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d1e86">Milutin Milanković (1879–1958; see Fig. 1), or Milankovitch as he is
widely known through his works, was a brilliant scientist. He was the first
to explain the Earth's cyclical long-term climate changes in terms of three
orbital motions whose combined variable effects cause the advance and
retreat of polar ice caps, affecting how and when Earth enters an ice age or
undergoes global warming based on the <italic>insolation</italic> (intensity of incoming solar
radiation it receives). Accordingly, global climate changes are the result
of these cyclical changes in Earth's axis direction, tilt, and the shape of
its orbit.</p>
      <p id="d1e92">This theory and orbital motions are now known as <italic>Milankovitch cycles</italic>. It took the world more
than 50 years to accept all of it. The main pillar of this theory is the
famous <italic>Canon of Insolation and the Ice-Age Problem</italic> (Milankovitch, 1969), which includes his other results from as
early as 1912, including many papers never translated into English –
originally in Serbo-Croatian, German, or French (e.g., Milankovitch, 1912,
1913a, b, c, 1920). The theory was finally proven by fossil evidence from
ocean cores, as described in a study published in <italic>Science</italic>, whose authors concluded
that “The observed regularity is too great to be explained as a random
result” (Hays et al., 1976). This study arose from the global
scientific project called “Climate: Long range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction” (CLIMAP, 1981), which aimed to reconstruct the
worldwide climate history through research of deep-sea sediments. After
these results were presented, the US National Academy of Sciences
officially embraced the Milankovitch cycle model, with the conclusion that
“orbital variations remain the most thoroughly examined mechanism of
climatic change” (National Research Council, 1982, p. 7). The
reliability of the presented isotope data is possibly best judged by the
fact that sediment cores from the Atlantic can be correlated with the cores
from the Pacific with accuracy completely unknown in any other field of
stratigraphy (Schwarzacher, 1993). The variations in the isotopic
composition of oxygen in the sediments at the bottom of the ocean follow
Milankovitch theory (Rial, 1999), and the changes in the Earth's orbital
geometry (characteristics of its orbit and the tilt of its axis) are the
fundamental cause of the succession of Quaternary ice ages (Hays et al.,
1976). This also concurs with Milankovitch's opinion that the key to past
climate change was the way in which the solar radiation reaching the Earth
had varied with time and latitude, affecting the amount of ice on the Earth.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F1"><?xmltex \currentcnt{1}?><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d1e106">Milutin Milankovitch, signed photograph from 1922 (public domain).</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=170.716535pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hgss.copernicus.org/articles/10/235/2019/hgss-10-235-2019-f01.jpg"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d1e116">The <italic>Canon of the Earth's insolation and its application to the ice age problem</italic>, initially published in German (Milankovitch, 1941), is his
unique masterpiece, which keeps<?pagebreak page236?> being cited at a constant or even increasing
rate (Dimitrijevic, 2002). Therein he collected the results of his 28
research publications and assembled them into one monograph with
some new analyses and supplements, and he gave the basis for calculation of
climates for all the planets of the Solar System; he himself calculated that
daily temperatures on the Moon exceed 100 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>C (the boiling point
of water at 1 atm or 101.325 kPa pressure) and that Mars temperatures are
too low for liquid water or any sentient life to exist. This “cosmography”
was, in his own words, one of his first and main motives for working out his
theory – he said so in the first of his popular books on the history of
science, which includes much autobiographical detail (Milankovitch, 1928).</p>
      <p id="d1e131">Another great achievement of Milankovitch is tied to the work of another
scientist, Alfred Wegener (1880–1930), who proposed <italic>continental drift</italic> (Wegener, 1912a, b),
the forerunner to the theory of <italic>plate tectonics</italic>, the basis of modern geology. Wegener
showed how all continents could fit together as a single continent he called
<italic>Pangea</italic>. He hypothesized that continents drift, and they began to separate about 200
million years ago; this is indeed believed today (e.g., Condie, 1989), proven
by the evidence from the ocean floor exploration and also by seismologic
evidence (Isacks et al., 1968). It is explained as a consequence of Earth's
layered structure and moving plates positioned underneath the continents and
oceans. Before all of this was known, about a century ago, Vladimir Köppen,
Wegener's father-in-law and his closest associate, sent a letter to
Milankovitch saying how excited they both were about the mechanism of cycles
he proposed. Their scientific correspondence culminated in 1924 after they
jointly published the now classic <italic>curve of insolation</italic> in Köppen and
Wegener's book (1924); this graph of variation in summer radiation for
65<inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula> N identified the correlation with ice ages (Fig. 2).</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F2"><?xmltex \currentcnt{2}?><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d1e157">Milankovitch's <italic>curve of insolation</italic> (slightly edited for better
readability).</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hgss.copernicus.org/articles/10/235/2019/hgss-10-235-2019-f02.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d1e169">Milankovitch was not only among the first ones to accept continental drift
theory, but also one of the few who remained loyal to it at the time; after
Wegener's untimely death he calculated the secular motion of Earth's
rotational poles throughout the history (Milankovitch, 1933), suggesting
where they once were and where they are heading. This work, where he
mathematically followed the poles' historical trajectories and explained the
drift of the Earth's solid crust over its fluid substratum, he dedicated to
the memory of Alfred Wegener.</p>
      <p id="d1e172">Three years before his death, Milankovitch (1955) calculated the highest
building possible on our planet. This “absolute building” would have to be
similar to the Eiffel Tower, rotationally symmetrical with a base radius of
nearly 113 km, to rise to 20.25 km above the Earth at the highest point <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mi>P</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>
(Fig. 3, left drawing). The point <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mi>M</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is where the very shape of our Earth
limits further expansion of the base. A smaller rational limit (the right
drawing) is simply where the base angle reaches 45<inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, because if
we want to go higher, from there we are building more in width than in
height. Therefore, the rational “modern Babylon Tower” would have a reasonable 2 km base for the height of 13.58 km. Milankovitch specified concrete as the material
in his calculations because of its hardening with age, while iron begins to
rust; the highest building should thus be made of concrete, reinforced at
the higher levels because of the pressure of the wind.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F3"><?xmltex \currentcnt{3}?><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d1e201">Milankovitch's original drawings of the absolute highest and the
highest rational towers.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hgss.copernicus.org/articles/10/235/2019/hgss-10-235-2019-f03.png"/>

      </fig>

      <?pagebreak page237?><p id="d1e210">Like closing the cycle, this was not Milankovitch's first trip into
Gargantuan endeavors: in his early 1908 article, he described a 1-million-liter water tower and mathematically found its ideal shape that would
equalize pressure – the shape of a water drop hanging on a horizontal
surface. Hence, his engineering spirit shined ever since he became the first
PhD of Technical Sciences from Serbia (his older contemporary Nikola Tesla
holds the first honorary degree, while M. I. Pupin,
also famous for his electrical engineering contributions, in 1889 obtained his PhD in physical chemistry). His published thesis allowed assessment of
the pressure curve's shape and properties when continuous pressure is
applied, useful in building of bridges, cupolas, and abutments (Milankovitch,
1907). Before devoting himself to science as professor of celestial
mechanics and theoretical physics, he became a much respected civil engineer
with six significant patents relating to methods of building with reinforced
concrete; his solutions were implemented on dozens of buildings, bridges, and
hydro power plants in Europe. How good he was in this work is perhaps best
illustrated by the decision of his professors to apply Milankovitch's system
in the reconstruction of one of the wings of the Vienna Technical High
School itself (Knežević, 2010). He also wrote a number of popular
books on the history of science (e.g., Milankovitch, 1928, 1950).</p>
      <p id="d1e213">In <italic>The Science Book</italic> featuring “250 milestones in the history of science” (Singh and
Greenfield, 2003), Milutin Milankovitch is listed among the important
scientists that shaped our civilization. At NASA, in their edition of the article “On the
Shoulders of Giants” (Graham, 2004), Milankovitch was recognized
as one of the world's greatest minds of all time in the field of Earth
sciences. Since 1993, the Milutin Milankovic Medal has been awarded yearly
by the European Geophysical Society (called the European Geosciences Union
since 2003), reserved for outstanding contributions in the area of long-term
climatic changes and modeling.<fn id="Ch1.Footn1"><p id="d1e219">European Geosciences Union: Milutin
Milankovic Medal, available at:
<uri>https://www.egu.eu/awards-medals/milutin-milankovic/</uri>, last access: 30 March
2019.</p></fn> To honor his achievements in astronomy, his name is given to craters
on the Moon and Mars and to a planetoid in the main asteroid belt. A good
elementary source for more knowledge on his life and theories is <italic>The Encyclopedia of Earth</italic>
biography,<fn id="Ch1.Footn2"><p id="d1e229">Lee, J.: Milankovitch Milutin, available at:
<uri>http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/154611</uri> (last access: 12 March 2015),
2012.</p></fn>, but it is always worth remembering that Milankovitch was one of the
scientists who triggered the transformation of Earth sciences from
descriptive into exact.</p>
      <p id="d1e236">However, one of his greatest achievements, the most precise calendar of our
time, is yet to be accepted by the world.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>The history of the calendar</title>
      <p id="d1e247">To better understand the rest of this paper, it is appropriate to review
briefly the history of the calendar, with some lesser known facts taken and
translated from Milankovitch (1928). Ginzel's three-volume
<italic>Handbuch</italic>, though it dates back more than a century
(1906–1914), remains mostly a valuable reference considering calendars and
ancient time chronology and can be consulted for more extensive
information. Although abbreviations CE (common era) and BCE (before the
common era) are more appropriate in interfaith dialogue and science and
should be used in accordance with the journal guidelines, the more traditional
AD and BC will be used here instead, because the calendar adoption
subject has some profound religious aspects, and this article touches upon
some of them.</p>
      <p id="d1e253">Ancient Egyptians used the year of constant length of 365 d. Thousands
of years of experience has shown that this calendar was not in line with
nature. The flooding of the Nile was taking place later year after year,
just to return to its initial place in the calendar after 1460 years – this
was the so-called “Sothic period” or “Sothic cycle”, during which the
Egyptian calendar would fall behind nature for the full year of 365 d.
From this (dividing <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">365</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1460</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), the yearly lag of their calendar
was one-fourth of the day. The Ptolemaic calendar reform was proposed and
accepted, though never implemented, by the conclave of the Egyptian
priesthood in the Decree of Canopus in 238 BC, aiming to keep the calendar
synchronized with the seasons. The traditional Egyptian calendar had 12
months of 30 days each and 5 <italic>epagomenal</italic> days that are outside any regular
month. According to the reform, the “Opening of the Year” ceremonies would
include an additional sixth day every fourth year, dedicated to the
Benefactor Gods, so a sixth epagomenal day would be intercalated every four
years in a year of 366 d.</p>
      <p id="d1e271">The Julian calendar, still used by the many Orthodox churches today, is the
first that actually implemented a 365.25 (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">365</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>)
days-per-year reform, identical to the Decree of Canopus, in 45 BC in Rome,
after the very long realigning “last year of confusion” (Lamont, 1919). In
this calendar, leap years occur every fourth year, provided the numerals of
that year are divisible by four. Named after and introduced by Julius
Caesar, it was made by the astronomer Sosigenes of Alexandria. The seventh
month of the calendar got the name Julius, to honor Caesar. At the First
Council of Nicea (AD 325), nearly four centuries later, the Christian
Church adopted the Julian calendar. Although it has a very good
approximation of natural cycles, its year was over 11 min longer
than it should be. By the 16th century, the<?pagebreak page238?> accumulated time difference put
the calendar 10 d behind nature, and today it is 13 d behind.</p>
      <p id="d1e290">The common calendar of our time, widely used throughout the world, is known
as the Gregorian calendar. It is a refinement of the Julian calendar,
introduced by the Pope Gregory XIII in AD 1582 and projected by Aloysius
Lilius (also variously referred to as Luigi Lilio, Luigi Giglio) after more
than three centuries of astronomical reflections in church circles concluded
by many theologian scholars, thinkers, and philosophers (the likes of Roger
Bacon, Robert Grosseteste, etc.). As a pontifical mathematician and a member
of the commission for the reform of the calendar, Ignazio Danti also
deserves an honorable mention, as well as another mathematician and
astronomer, Christopher Clavius, who finished the proposal of the actual
Gregorian calendar after the death of Lilius. The length of the year was
adjusted from 365.25  to 365.2425 d, which was just a 0.002 percent
change, but it also needed centuries to be widely accepted, especially by
non-Catholic countries: the last European states adopted this reform in the 20th
century, while the British Empire and its colonies, including what is now the
United States, adopted it in 1752 (by which time it was necessary to correct
it by 11 d). To achieve the necessary adjustment, the Gregorian
calendar skipped the accumulated difference of 10 d (or more, depending
when the switch to the new calendar occurred: initially, Thursday, 4 October
1582 was followed by Friday, 15 October 1582). It continues to omit three
leap days every 400 years, in a way that years divisible by 100 would be
leap years only if they were divisible by 400 as well (so, the years 1700,
1800, and 1900 were not leap years, but the year 2000 was). A calendar mean
year is <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">365</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">97</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">400</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> d, with the same result also
obtainable by summing the fractional parts implied by the described rule:
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">365</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">4</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">100</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">400</mml:mn><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">365</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.25</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.01</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0.0025</mml:mn><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">365.2425</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
      <p id="d1e364">That calendar we still use today in everyday life, but it is not yet
completely accurate and is still lagging behind nature, but at a slower rate
than its predecessor (26 s per year, compared to the 11 min of the
Julian calendar). If we do not want the arbitrary forceful skipping of dates
in the future (again), the next common calendar for centuries to come should
add another slight but also very important refinement that attaches
importance to the synchronization between the civil calendar and the
seasons. The one such refinement, proposed by Milutin Milankovitch, would
adjust the length of the year to 365.2422 d and leave us – quite
naturally instead of forcefully – with the precise calendar for much longer
than civilization existed thus far.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Scientific background to the calendar problem</title>
      <p id="d1e375">The <italic>tropical</italic> or solar year is, generally speaking, the length of time between two
vernal equinoxes (observable and recognizable by equal lengths of day and
night), or from spring to spring. However, the time interval between two
successive spring equinoxes is (a) not constant, (b) not precisely equal to
the tropical year because of precession – the vernal equinox gradually
regresses along the ecliptic, and (c) successive passages of the equinoxes
are not strictly uniform because the orbital motion of the Earth's line of
apses relative to the equinox introduces tiny rate differences, depending on
the starting location within the orbit. Hence, using different starting
points in the circuit for measurements gives different year lengths – a
problem that one usually solves by using the average figure (mean value of
all measured yearly time intervals).</p>
      <p id="d1e381">The main problem of every calendar is to create years of entire days, each
with its own date, but at the same time to comply with the tropical year, which does not
have a whole number of days. The most common way to reconcile the two is to
vary the number of days in the calendar year. And astronomers have
progressively refined the definition of the tropical year, currently
defining it as the time interval required for the mean tropical longitude of
the Sun to increase by 360<inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:msup><mml:mi/><mml:mo>∘</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:math></inline-formula>, or to complete one full seasonal circuit
(Meeus and Savoie, 1992, p. 42). Historically, the most often used value for
the tropical year is 365.24219878… or 365.2422 d, determined
by Newcomb's expression for the geometric mean longitude of the Sun, thus
defined as the <italic>mean</italic> tropical year (Newcomb, 1898). Meeus and Savoie (1992, p. 42) provide its value for the year 2000, which is 365.24219 d, or around
365 d, 5 h, 48 min and 46 s; it slowly shortens, at a rate
of approximately half a second per century, and it lasted 365.24231 d in
the astronomical year 0, coinciding with the Julian year 1 BC. There is a
regular expression that gives the length of the tropical year (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:mi>Y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>) as a
function of the time in Julian centuries (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>), based on the tables of Newcomb:
<inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>Y</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">365.24219879</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6.14</mml:mn><mml:mo>×</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">6</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Another slightly different
starting value was suggested by Le Verrier, and both equations estimate that
the tropical year become over half a second shorter each century, or in case
of Milankovitch's calculations (1923) precisely 0.539136 s, though he
explicitly states that we can not talk about the mean value for the length
of the tropical year in general terms, but only for a certain epoch, as we
presently do not know how it will change in the future.</p>
      <p id="d1e438">Milankovitch analyzed the Earth's period of rotation, which he believed was
not constant, and that a seasonal year was not of a constant length (like
many before him suspected: Hipparchus, Copernicus, Kepler) – this was
nearly impossible to measure precisely until the first atomic clock, based
on a transition in the cesium atom, was made in 1955 by Essen and Parry. The
General Conference on Weights and Measures in 1960 even redefined the measure of second in terms of this cesium
transition. The atomic second, often called the SI second, was meant to
agree with the ephemeris second based on Newcomb's work, which also makes it
agree with the mean solar second of the 19th century (for more details, see
McCarthy and Seidelmann, 2009). The discovery that the rate of rotation of
the Earth, and in turn the length of mean solar day,<?pagebreak page239?> is not constant was
important in understanding the tropical year changes over long periods of
time. And Milankovitch proposed an elegant technical solution, both simple
and effective, that put into perspective his (at the time) suspicions about
the length of the tropical year in the long run and gave us the
calendar of the unprecedented accuracy – more accurate than the Gregorian
calendar and still so attuned to it that the first deviation between the
two would occur in the year 2800.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4">
  <label>4</label><title>The story of the Milankovitch calendar</title>
      <p id="d1e449">The calendar was proposed by Milutin Milankovitch at the Ecumenical Congress
of Eastern Orthodox churches in Constantinople (shortly before it became
Istanbul) in May 1923. Milankovitch was invited by his government to be its
representative at the summit because it was recognized that “astronomical
sciences have a final say on calendar issue”, and he was the leading expert
at the time; the Serbian Orthodox Church accepted the government's
choice (Milankovitch, 1928). The main topic of discussion at this gathering
was the reform of the Julian calendar, which was already 13 d
behind the Gregorian calendar used in the West. The main purpose of the
reform was to unify the days when the saints are celebrated in both
Christian churches (Orthodox and Catholic) and avoid double celebrations
that introduce confusion and financial losses for national economies.
Milankovitch was the second member of Serbian royal delegation and, in his
own words, “the only civilian at the congress, because the two professors
of theology count, despite their civil uniforms, in the priestly caste”
(Milankovitch, 1928). At the time, it had been more than a decade since
Milankovitch gave up his successful civil engineering career in Vienna to
accept, for a salary 10 times lower, the call from the famous Serbian
professor-scientists Jovan Cvijić, Mihailo Petrović Alas and Bogdan
Gavrilović and take position of Chair of Applied Mathematics at the University
in Belgrade, Kingdom of Serbia. The position included three seemingly diverse
subjects that, as Milankovitch later believed, helped his scientific
development: rational mechanics, celestial mechanics, and theoretical
physics. Shortly afterwards, he spent World War I as a detainee in
Budapest after being arrested on his honeymoon – it was during the war
years that he really developed his astronomical and mathematical theory of
climate, before publishing his important results in a French-language
monograph (Milankovitch, 1920).</p>
      <p id="d1e452">The Serbian delegation came to the 1923 congress with a proposition for
calendar reform by another author, Maksim Trpković, which was later
rejected, but it is important to mention it because Milankovitch initially
took over the calculations for the date of Easter from there. The Greek
delegates, however, improved the final proposition by suggesting that the
date of Easter should be determined by astronomical observations;
Milankovitch agreed wholeheartedly, as this was the scientific way.
Trpković originally proposed the intercalation rule that the <italic>secular</italic> or
<italic>centennial</italic> years (ending with two zeros and thus divisible by 100) in centuries which
when divided by 9 have remainders of 0 or 4 will be leap years. In such a
way 7 days will be skipped in nine centuries, so that the calendar will
be closer to the tropical year than the Gregorian calendar, and the vernal
equinox will always fall close to 21 March. A scientific commission was
formed to examine the two proposals (the second was Romanian, which
suggested too many changes to be acceptable), but both were rejected by the
congress. What they found objectionable in the proposition of the Serbian
delegation was the fact that the year 2000 would not be a leap year, as
opposed to the Gregorian calendar, and after only 77 years a difference of
1 d would appear between the Gregorian calendar and the newly rectified
one. The general opinion of the participants was that the better solution
was to retain the Julian calendar as it was, and only delete 13 d
in order to bring it in line with the Gregorian calendar because compliance
of dates was considered mandatory. In this way, the first 1-day difference
would appear 100 years later. Another option was to completely adopt the
Gregorian calendar (Milankovitch, 1924).</p>
      <p id="d1e461">At the congress (but also in the scientific monograph that followed – see
Fig. 4), Milankovitch (1923) scientifically presented that the Gregorian
calendar, despite being more precise than the Julian calendar, is also not
precise enough and that it will be a whole day late in our present
millennium. This fact was, and still is, the call for the new reform of
both Julian and Gregorian calendars.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F4"><?xmltex \currentcnt{4}?><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d1e467">Milankovitch's original <italic>Reform of the Julian Calendar</italic>, published in 1923.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hgss.copernicus.org/articles/10/235/2019/hgss-10-235-2019-f04.jpg"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d1e479">Milankovitch was then asked to try to revise the calendar during the
congress (which lasted nearly a month), to make it more astronomically
consistent and acceptable for all. His well-documented proposal was accepted
at the congress but, for various bureaucratic reasons, some of which are
mentioned in this article, the implementation is still lagging behind even
in the Orthodox churches.</p>
      <p id="d1e482">As a starting point, he tried to obtain the longest possible consonance of
the two calendars, realizing from the congress discussion that a
realistically acceptable proposal must be strictly scientifically based and
astronomically more precise than the Gregorian calendar but also very
similar to it (Milankovitch, 1923). Days later, he developed a new
intercalation rule for leap years, but only after a long night without sleep,
during which he felt the need to “drink a lot of coffee and smoke a lot of
tobacco like a Turkish pasha” (Milankovitch, 1928 – the style of this
popular book shows his literary qualities that bring historical occasions
closer to the reader). In addition to the “every fourth year” rule that had been constantly in effect since Julius Caesar, centennial years (always divisible
by 100) would be leap years only if division by 900 left a remainder of 200
or 600 (unlike the Gregorian rule, requiring division by 400 without
a remainder).</p>
      <p id="d1e485">Milankovitch selected this rule because it yields 218 leap years in the
900-year period, so <inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">365</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">218</mml:mn><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">900</mml:mn><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">365.2422</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> d,
producing an average year length that is almost identical to<?pagebreak page240?> the then
current length of the mean tropical year (a 2 s difference if we go
further in decimals). Despite slow changing of the year length, he
considered this precision sufficient for numerous future millennia. In this
way he obtained a calendar that was more precise than the Gregorian but
consistent with it up to 2800, which was 877 years from that Ecumenical Congress in Constantinople, or a whole 800 years longer
consistency than with the previous Serbian proposition! The results (see
Fig. 5) were that the years 2100, 2200, 2300, 2500, 2600, and 2700 are
ordinary according to both calendars; the years 2000 and 2400 are leap years
according to both calendars, since 2000 and 2400 can be evenly divided by
400. According to the calendar presented by Milankovitch, when
2000 is divided by 900, the remainder is 200 and for 2400 the remainder is
600. The year 2800 is a leap year only according to the Gregorian calendar,
since 2800 can be evenly divided by 400, but when divided by 900 the
remainder is only 100, which makes it an ordinary year, unlike the year
2900.</p>

      <?xmltex \floatpos{t}?><fig id="Ch1.F5"><?xmltex \currentcnt{5}?><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d1e510">Centennials or secular years with underlined leap years. Numbers
are original prints taken from Milankovitch's <italic>Reform of the Julian Calendar</italic>, published in 1923.</p></caption>
        <?xmltex \igopts{width=236.157874pt}?><graphic xlink:href="https://hgss.copernicus.org/articles/10/235/2019/hgss-10-235-2019-f05.png"/>

      </fig>

<?xmltex \hack{\newpage}?>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S5">
  <label>5</label><title>Religious aspects of the Milankovitch calendar</title>
      <p id="d1e533">Although an academic paper is not expected to deal extensively with
religious aspects, a few words should be said about them in view of the
importance that religious leaders historically had in the adoption of the
calendars. There is no calendar reform that has received widespread reception
without the unanimous consent of religious leaders, as described at length
by the masterly review published by Grumel in 1958. Proceedings of the
Vatican conference to commemorate the 400th anniversary of the “Gregorian Reform
of the Calendar” (Coyne et al., 1983) mentions the calendar presented here, which
“improves upon the year length of the Gregorian scheme, so that leap years
will include 2000, 2400 (as in the Gregorian calendar), but also 2900 and
3300 instead of 2800 and 3200; thus the dominions of the Eastern Orthodox
Church will differ by a day from the rest of the world in the 29th century
AD”.</p>
      <p id="d1e536">When adopting the Julian calendar, the Nicene Council of AD 325 sought to
devise rules according to which all Christians would celebrate Easter on the
same day, or to quote presumably Eusebius (339, translated in 1999) and his unfinished work:
“Think, then, how unseemly it is, that on the same day some should be
fasting whilst others are seated at a banquet; and that after Easter, some
should be rejoicing at feasts, whilst others are still observing a strict
fast.” It took a very long time for Christians to achieve that objective in
AD 325. Afterwards, the papal bull <italic>Inter gravissimas</italic>, issued by Pope
Gregory XIII on 24 February 1582, became the law of the Catholic Church, but
it was never recognized by any of the Orthodox churches or by Protestant
churches, among others. Consequently, the days on which Easter and related
holidays were celebrated by different Christian churches diverged once
again.</p>
      <p id="d1e542">What is called the Milankovitch calendar in this article is actually the
result of the cooperation of numerous churches, spiritually in line with the
original meaning of the word “synod”. The Serbian delegation gave up on
its denied proposition, and Milutin Milankovitch later proposed the improved
calendar described here. The Greek delegation proposed that the phases of
the moon and the date of Easter should not be calculated from the 19-year
Metonic cycle of golden numbers and epacts (add 1 to the year and divide by
19, the reminder is the “golden number”…), because that system<?pagebreak page241?> of
numbers corresponding to the different lengths of the solar and lunar years
is not equal for the Julian and Gregorian calendar, and the results of both
computations are incorrect (Milankovitch, 1928); instead, the date of Easter
should be determined in the future by precise astronomical calculations and
through cooperation of astronomical observatories and departments of
celestial mechanics at the universities of Athens, Belgrade, Bucharest, and
St. Petersburg. This was in accordance with the simple rule accepted by
<italic>all</italic> Christian churches at the First Council of Nicea in AD 325 that Easter
should be celebrated on a Sunday, later than the vernal equinox (which was
fixed on 21 March), on a date to be decided conjointly by Rome and
Alexandria. The first full moon after the vernal equinox is the now accepted
rule, but it is only in the 6th century that Easter tables wrongly assigned
to Cyril of Alexandria assumed this rule (see Grumel, 1960). It is clear and
unequivocal that no difference would be possible in regard to the date of
Easter if the phases of the moon are accurately determined, and not by the
old rules of reckoning, which gave inaccurate results (Shields, 1924); these
inaccuracies are explained in detail by Milankovitch (1923, 1924). The
Romanian delegation gave up on its denied proposition and raised the issue
of initiative of Orthodox churches to convene a world congress on the
calendar issue after the unifying proposition of Milankovitch's calendar.
These steps were aimed to bring all Christian calendars in agreement. <italic>All</italic>
delegates present at Ecumenical Congress of 1923 gave their contribution to
the shaping of the final proposition.</p>
      <p id="d1e551">The Russian Church was the first to accept the revised calendar after the
Synod of the Church of Constantinople (Milankovitch, 1923; Shields, 1924)
but later indefinitely delayed its implementation, possibly because the
Russian representation, in the troubled times of the Bolsheviks, came to the
congress not from the Russian Church, but from the newly formed schismatic
Renovationist Church (Stamatopoulos, 2008), which soon went into decline and
ceased to exist in 1946. The Serbian Church also delayed implementation
after its initial acceptance, for the time “when the reformed calendar is
accepted and implemented by all the other Orthodox Churches.”</p>
      <p id="d1e555">Today, for example, the Patriarchates of Constantinople, Alexandria, and Antioch and churches
of Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Albania, Czech Republic, and
Slovakia up to the Orthodox Church in America (since 1983) use
the “new”, “revised” or “rectified” Julian calendar with a different
leap-year rule, which dropped 13 d in 1923 and can be easily referred to
as the Milankovitch calendar, by the name of the author of the main
corrections, until the time it eventually became known by the name of the
religious authority that instills the unity of calendar acceptance to all.
Until 2800, churches mentioned so far in this paragraph will celebrate
Christmas on the same day as the Western churches; after that, they will
celebrate on the astronomically more precise date, unless all the churches
accept the Milankovitch calendar by then. Of those which continue to adhere
to the old Julian calendar, at the present time, there is the Patriarchate
of Jerusalem and the churches of Russia and Serbia, along with the
monasteries on autonomous monastic state of Mt. Athos. They will continue to
celebrate Christmas on 25 December in the Julian calendar, which is 7
January in the Gregorian calendar until 2100, when it will become 8 January.
The Oriental Orthodox churches (Coptic, Ethiopian, Eritrean, Syrian and the
Armenian Apostolic Church) will continue to use their own calendars, which
usually result in fixed dates being celebrated in accordance with the Julian
calendar, except (for part of) the Assyrian Church.</p>
      <p id="d1e558">All Orthodox churches still continue to use the Julian Easter, with the sole
exception of the Finnish Orthodox Church, so determining the date of Easter
by precise astronomical calculations is not yet widely accepted, although it
is accepted that the date of Easter should always be determined by the time
of the holy city of Jerusalem. A precise astronomical rule for Pascha
(Easter, Pasch), determined by general Synod in 1923, states the following:
Pascha is the Sunday after the midnight-to-midnight day at the meridian of
the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem during which the first full
moon after the vernal equinox occurs; the instant of the full moon must
occur after the instant of the vernal equinox, but it may occur on the same
day; if the full moon occurs on a Sunday, Easter is the following Sunday.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S6" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>6</label><title>Conclusions</title>
      <p id="d1e569">Our calendars have become more precise throughout history, thus improving
the emulation of the natural cycle that does not have a whole number of days
measured by our seconds. Milankovitch achieved accuracy of 365 d, 5 h, 48 min and 48 s. His calendar year is only two and a
fraction seconds longer than the current tropical year. If we compare it
with historically popular calendars, the results are impressive: the Julian
calendar loses a whole day in the race with nature every 128 years, and the
Gregorian calendar is only somewhat more durable with its 3280 years before
trailing behind a full day. Of course, nature always wins, but the
Milankovitch calendar is a clear runner-up, with the full 28 800 years of
running in parallel with nature. Perhaps we should give the future
generations the solution to the measurement of time, the one that will not
eventually leave them in the past.</p>
      <p id="d1e572">Although attuned for the longest possible consonance, the Gregorian and
Milankovitch calendars will finally show a serious disagreement in the year
2800, when 1 March 2800 in the Milankovitch calendar will be 29 February
2800 in the Gregorian calendar. So that year will be a leap year only
according to the less precise Gregorian calendar, which will be a whole day
late even during our millennium, and at least full 3 d (Blackburn and
Holford-Strevens, 2003), or more likely 10 (Borkowski, 1991), behind the
natural seasons after about 10 millennia. The year 2800 is the last
reasonable date to<?pagebreak page242?> accept the Milankovitch calendar, with many advantages
explained in this study, although it would be more sensible for the world to
do it much earlier (we are closing to the centennial of its “birth”, which
is the year 2023). It is important to emphasize that, for the majority of
civil purposes, there will be no visible difference from the currently used
calendar until the year 2800; that is actually one of the strongest points
for its acceptance, as the higher accuracy would be achieved without
compromising the old habits for quite a few centuries.</p>
      <p id="d1e575">If society in the future still attaches importance to the synchronization
between the civil calendar and the seasons, the reform of the calendar will
be necessary. Borkowski (1991, p. 121) states that due to “high uncertainty
in the Earth rotation it is premature at present to suggest any reform that
would reach further than a few thousand years into the future.” Proposal of
calendar reform suggested by Milankovitch is nearly a hundred years old and
is becoming very relevant in this millennium.</p>
      <p id="d1e578">This paper has hopefully shed some light on the least recognized
contributions of one of the greatest geoscience and space sciences minds of all
time; it perhaps to a small extent contributes to the adoption, both for
secular and for religious purposes, of his calendar, which is more accurate in
keeping up with nature than the other ones. The process of adopting a
calendar usually lasts centuries, so it can be assumed that the
Milankovitch calendar began its journey long ago, and this paper needed only
to focus attention to the problem and its solution: a scientifically
relevant and astronomically precise unifying calendar that is suitable for
all and for many centuries to come.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d1e585">The author declares that there is no conflict of interest.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d1e591">Thanks are owed to referees and the editor, Pascal Richet, for their suggestions and additional literature that improved this work. All potential mistakes remain mine.</p></ack><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d1e596">This paper was edited by Pascal Richet and reviewed by two anonymous referees.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
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    <!--<article-title-html>The curious case of the Milankovitch calendar</article-title-html>
<abstract-html><p>The Gregorian calendar, despite being more precise than
the Julian (which now lags 13&thinsp;d behind Earth), will also lag a day behind
nature in this millennium. In 1923, Milutin Milankovitch presented a
calendar of outstanding scientific importance and unprecedented astronomical
accuracy, which was accepted at the Ecumenical Congress of Eastern Orthodox
churches. However, its adoption is still partial in churches and nonexistent
in civil states, despite nearly a century without a better proposition of
calendar reform in terms of both precision and ease of transition, which are
important for acceptance. This article reviews the development of calendars
throughout history and presents the case of Milankovitch's, explaining its
aims and methodology and why it is sometimes mistakenly identified with the
Gregorian because of their long consonance. Religious aspects are briefly
covered, explaining the potential of this calendar to unite secular and
religious purposes through improving accuracy in both contexts.</p></abstract-html>
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